Joe Ryan Is Extending Like Never Before
Even accounting for typical variation, Ryan is finding a new level
How close a pitcher releases the ball to home plate is a function of not just mechanics but also effort. Try it yourself at home: you can engage in a much longer stride by engaging your lower half and stretching your front leg outward than if you do both of those things at half effort. It’s possible the 7.6 feet of extension that Pirates starter Jared Jones recorded in his debut start was just a measurement error — but it’s also possible he was just really going for it that day, digging deep physically to maximize his chances of success in his first-ever MLB start.
In fact, that appears to be what happened. In his second start, Jones’ average extension on his four seamer was nearly a foot shorter, at 6.8 feet. This made me re-evaluate an assumption that I had while writing about Jones last week, which was that extension likely does not vary much from start to start. Is that actually true?
In short, apparently not. Both within a single start and between starts, fastball extension varies to a surprisingly significant degree. It is uncommon — but not completely out of the ordinary — for a pitcher to have two starts in the same season with a 12-inch difference in extension length. This natural variation suggests that it might be irresponsible to extrapolate from early season extension figures — unless we’re talking about Joe Ryan. But more on that later.
(A quick reminder of why extension matters: not only does more extension increase the perceived velocity of a fastball, it also decreases the steepness of the vertical approach angle, allowing fastballs with average velocity like that of Ryan or Freddy Peralta to “play up,” especially if they are able to locate the pitch high in the zone. Here’s a great primer on VAA.)
To assess the nature of extension variation, I dove into data from the 2023 season. The mean and standard deviation for extension length by feet “within starts” and “between starts” can be found in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Mean and standard deviation, four seam fastball extension length (within and between starts). Between starts: minimum 670 fastballs thrown. Within starts: minimum 30 fastballs thrown during the start.
If we are most interested in whether pitchers significantly vary their landing spot on the mound, it is more instructive to look at the difference between their maximum extension and their minimum extension in the same start, as well as across starts. Here, the result tells a clearer story: The typical starter will actually have a relatively large difference — close to half a foot — in their extension length even within the same start. At the extremes of starting pitchers, that number is closer to 1.5 feet.
Table 2: Maximum extension minus minimum four seam fastball extension, within and between starts
An example: Joe Ryan’s longest single start extension came on August 26, 2023, when he averaged 6.78 feet. His lowest average, 6.27 feet, came a month earlier. This spread between extension performances was roughly league average.
In summary, pitchers are somewhat consistent — but not robotic — at repeating their stride length on pitch delivery. Some early season extension figures, like Jones’ absurd 7.6 feet of extension in his debut, may just represent the upper band of a pitcher’s capabilities, but not necessarily their baseline.
So when Ryan averaged 7.1 feet of extension on his four seamer in his first start of the season, it could have been an outlier performance. It was a new peak for Ryan, but knowing what we now know about the fluctuations in extension throughout the course of a season, it would be more statistically responsible to assume that he might bump up his season average from 6.5 feet to something like 6.7 feet.
And then he averaged 7 feet of extension in the next start. So is Ryan just feeling particularly healthy and flexible, or has something changed under the hood? Looking at two fastballs — one from September of 2023, and one from his start last Saturday — it appears that this is no two start fluke. Ryan has made slight mechanical tweaks to his delivery that allow for him to become one of the league leaders in extension — all at the modest height of 6-foot-2.
The full videos of both fastballs are below. The first is from September 2023, on a day where his extension was around 6.6 feet on average; the second is from his start against the Guardians on Saturday, where the average was nearly six inches longer.
The difference between the two deliveries is subtle, but to my eye, the second looks more dynamic. On the pitch to Isaac Paredes in that September start, Ryan appears to me more upright and less engaged in the lower half, but the difference is very hard to spot in real time.
Breaking it down frame-by-frame reveals the differences in clearer contrast. Below are two stills from the same point of the delivery, just after the conclusion of the leg kick.
In the September delivery, Ryan’s front leg is separated from the body, while the front foot is tilted at a sideways orientation.
On Saturday, Ryan tucked the leg closer to the body; the toes were pointed toward the centerfield camera, suggesting that the hip and pelvis had rotated further inward.
As Ryan prepares to rotate, the torso position has shifted. Look at the direction of the back knee — in the September delivery, it’s pointed more toward third base, while in the bottom frame it looks more oriented toward left-center.
These adjustments allow for a more explosive move off the mound, allowing for Ryan’s increase in extension.
This development in extension length is only a small part of Ryan’s variety of tweaks over the offseason. Not only has Ryan increased his average fastball velocity from 92.3 mph to 93.7 mph, early returns suggest that he has found more consistent shape on both his splitter and his slider offerings.
But while the gain in extension is less visible than a 1.5 mph velocity increase, it is no less remarkable. So far in the 2024 season, relative to their height, no pitcher in baseball has increased their extension distance more. There is a decent amount of variance in extension, but Ryan’s changes look like they’re here to stay.
Questions? Suggestions for future posts? I’d love to hear from you — michaelrosen3@gmail.com